In the short term, after Michael Cohen’s guilty pleas and Paul Manfort’s convictions, what happens to the President? Legally, nothing. Politically, nothing.
Trump has not been charged in either case so he is in no legal jeopardy. Politically, while he has been hanging with now-convicted felons, I suspect that his supporters will continue their support and his detractors will continue to devalue him.
Newspapers and cable TV that oppose Trump have trumpeted yesterday’s developments in the Cohen and Manafort cases with World War 3 headlines and sky-is-falling talking heads. Most of the action has been screeching commentary on Michael Cohen’s statement in a Manhattan courtroom that Trump told him to pay off two women to hide sexual encounters that Cohen has admitted are an illegal federal campaign contribution by him to Trump’s campaign. That’s because he was limited to $ 2,700 under federal election laws.
Significantly, the charging document in the Cohen case, a criminal “information” because Cohen waived indictment by a grand jury, makes no such allegation. So the United States Attorney in Manhattan does not say that Trump caused the hush money to be paid, nor is it necessary to do so to validly charge Cohen.
Thus, there is a witness (Cohen) who puts Trump in the soup. Or does he?
Because of Cohen’s charge against Trump, the not-so-learned cable bloviators contend that Trump is an “unindicted co-conspirator” in illegal campaign contributions. Passing the fact that the most Trump could be is an “unnamed” co-conspirator because there is no indictment, he could not have made an agreement with Cohen to do something that the law forbids, i.e., “conspire,” because Trump had a legal right to spend as much as he wanted on his own campaign and did so when Cohen was reimbursed. The scheme to which Cohen copped was money to the women initially from Cohen, but ultimately from Trump.
According to his lawyer Lanny Davis, the Cohen guilty pleas are a prelude to Cohen’s willingness to help with the Special Counsel’s investigation into Trump or Trump campaign cooperation in Russian election meddling in 2016. There is no “cooperation” agreement with the United States Attorney in Manhattan.
In addition to claiming Trump’s criminal culpability, the horses of impeachment are on a stampede. On that possibility, there is a striking similarity to the Clinton impeachment. As of now both cases are all about sex. (Special Counsel Mueller is not through so his allegations could be about a lot more when he sends his report to Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.)
In the Senate impeachment trial of Clinton based on the fact that Clinton had lied under oath about an affair with Monica Lewinsky, Senator Dale Bumpers of Arkansas, a smooth orator, said, “When they say this case is not about sex, it’s about sex.” He was right.
Paul Manafort’s convictions are taking second place in the pecking order of Trump guilt allegations. That’s because those convictions are of felonies in which Trump did not participate. Should Trump pardon Manafort, litigation will ensue charging Trump with using his pardon authority to obstruct justice, a litigation that will go on forever.
No presidential pardon will stop the Attorney General of the state in which Manafort filed his tax returns from prosecuting him for state tax evasion: a dismal though for him as he hopes for a pardon.