Will Kavanaugh Be Confirmed? Number 2.

50-50.

In this fast-moving saga, as of Tuesday evening, Christine Blasey Ford won’t testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee unless the FBI does an investigation first. This is also the position of the Democrats on the Committee.

Speaking from the White House earlier on Tuesday before Dr. Ford’s demand contained in a letter to the Chair of the Committee from her lawyer, the President said that a delay of a “couple of weeks” did not disturb him. That’s about the amount of time that an FBI investigation would take.

Technically, the FBI’s investigation would be a reopening of the completed background investigation of Judge Kavanaugh and would have to be requested by the White House. In my opinion, the White House will request the investigation. If not requested, there will be no hearing and the Committee will not vote to advance the nomination to the full Senate because Sen. Flake will vote no.

The nomination can still  be voted on by the full Senate where confirmation will be in doubt because two, three or four Republicans will not approve Kavanaugh without the hearing that they wanted.

Before Dr. Ford demurred on Tuesday evening to the Committee’s invitation to testify at a Monday hearing next week, two witnesses were to testify, Kavanaugh and Ford. (Mr. Judge, Kavanaugh’s friend, has declined to appear.) If the FBI investigates, it will not be limited to interviewing just Kavanaugh and Ford. And other witnesses suggested by the FBI report may be called at a delayed hearing.

As a result of the new FBI report, members of the Judiciary Committee will have data upon which to base questioning at the  delayed hearing, data that they do not have now. The FBI report will address the details (or lack of them) of where and when the incident happened (or didn’t) and who was there (or not).

If Kavanaugh’s denials are contradicted or placed in doubt by the FBI report, he will not be confirmed because two, three or four Republicans will not vote to confirm. Similarly, if Ford’s testimony is affecting and persuasive and consistent with the FBI report, Kavanaugh will not be confirmed no matter what he says. See #MeToo and its progeny.

The issue of whether Kavanaugh should be confirmed even if he “did it” (a) because it happened when he was 17 and (b) because of his allegedly exemplary life will not be addressed.