When I was a little boy I liked to hang out with adults (no responsive psychobabble, please). Among my favorites were Hannah and Isaac Luttan, a childless couple who lived near us in the summers in Bayville, Long Island.

The Luttans had a company in Brooklyn where they developed, manufactured and sold insecticides and pesticides. (Remember when there was manufacturing in Brooklyn?)

The company was called Certox. The name stood for the guaranteed result when its products were used to kill bugs and pests: certain toxicity.

Buoyed by prominent Republican Karl Rove’s lightning bolt in his Wall Street Journal column of February 18 that D.J. Trump would be “wiped out” if he ran for president in 2024, I suggest that D.J. is on the path  to certain toxicity.

Rove to the contrary notwithstanding, the received wisdom from pundit sachems, electeds, and political nochschleppers is that we are in a fight for “control” of the Republican Party between those supporting D.J. and those who do not and that “75%” of republicans support D.J.

It is further suggested by those worthies that Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell is D.J.’s principal opponent in this alleged “fight.”

I think that D.J.’s hold on republicans is based on him and not because of party allegiance. The idea is that D.J. is the party and the party is D.J. (If this has a familiar ring to it, think Germany in the thirties.)

That is not the case with McConnell. He is interested in getting back the Senate in 2022.  While he wants to be majority leader again, it’s not  really personal ambition but rather an institutional aim. To achieve a republican Senate, McConnell has to raise big money from givers who have sworn off support for republicans while D.J. is calling the shots.

McConnell’s attack on Trump after the impeachment trial was all about raising money from big givers.

I don’t know when or how soon, but I think D.J.’s. influence and control will shrivel until they build a fence around him and he is lauded like the last buffalo. “There he is folks, D.J. Give him a hand, he used to be very famous.”

Here are several reasons:

“Tincture of time.” That famous medication exemplifies the fact that most common ailments are self-limiting: they go away after time. Out of power in his Florida redoubt, 86’ed by Twitter and Facebook, just the passage of time will reduce his influence. The flavor does not last.

He has big trouble. He is the darling of prosecutors in every state and federal district where he or the vaunted “Trump Organization” ever set foot. The “Organization” is known to be a turkey destined to gobble as the months and years go by even as it is managed by Sons of D.J., noted business geniuses.

His personal liability–criminal and civil–is based on alleged bad behavior in both business and public office and massive debts arising from personal guaranties that D.J.gave to lenders. And, dear reader, you will shortly see those tax returns.

D.J.’s behavior before and during the January 6 attack on the Capitol that Mitch McConnell’s speech after the impeachment acquittal invited law enforcement to examine is the biggest “big trouble” for the former president.

He has a lot of people who do not like him.  Take the charming Lindsey Graham  and the lovable Ted Cruz. Please!

After the attack on the Capitol, Graham , doing a two-step while speaking in the Senate rather than posting himself at a lectern or at his desk, told us he was “through” with D.J. Now, not so much. Reversion is likely.

Cruz wants the “Trump voters” for a possible run in 2024 as though they were fungible like a ton of grain. All the same.  If you think Cruz likes or respects  D.J., I have a bridge to sell you.

You don’t need Maggie Haberman to inform you that positive things said by “supporters” in public office are just so many obsequies to please the don that mask their personal distaste for the man.

When out of power, D.J.’s bad behavior will change alleged “support.”

Public opinion polling is on the way out. How do we actually know what D.J.’s influence is on say, August 1, 2022? In the old days, that would be a poll. After the discrediting of public opinion polling and no replacement (like a Nielsen-type permanent sample) in sight, his influence will be unknown.

Donald Trump, the republican savior, is a mirage. He faces certain toxicity.