Joe Biden’s shocking and stunning victories on Super Tuesday yield lessons for what happened and what will happen ahead.
The black vote in South Carolina. There is no doubt that Biden’s Super Tuesday success is the direct result of black voters in South Carolina who handed him an unprecedented victory there. Until that blowout occurred, Biden was flailing and failing.
The lesson is that the black vote is crucial; that its strength is based on turnout; and that it is not limited to black candidates. (It helps to have the endorsement of a Cong. James Clyburn in South Carolina!) Moreover, the black vote does not and will not happen for Republicans because Republicans do nothing for blacks.
Another lesson, unique to South Carolina, is what will happen to Sen. Lindsey Graham, that odious chameleon, in his reelection effort against Democrat Jaime Harrison. Cook Political Report has rated South Carolina as “solid Republican” but it’s fair to ask what will happen to the race after Mike Bloomberg rides into the state and spends heavily on Harrison’s campaign.
Look to, Lindsey!
Free media. Biden’s path to Super Tuesday was fueled by just two and one-half days of free media. He had no money for paid ads even if he had the time to create and place them.
Once he secured the South Carolina victory, it became the sort of yarn that the cablenets, social media and the internet adore. Counted out, deprecated as a has-been by his primary opponents and often halting in his public appearances, none of that mattered to South Carolina’s majority black vote when the alternative was “democratic socialist” Bernie Sanders and free media latched on to this fact. Free media became Biden’s dispositive ally.
The primacy of free media in today’s torrid media space fueled a previous political success: Donald Trump in 2016. Outspent at least three-to-one by Hillary Clinton, with a small political organization, Trump’s primary victory over sixteen Republican opponents was a yarn that could not be avoided by media.
Add to the Trump political story his knack for bombastic assertions of dubious accuracy, all of which were covered by liberal media and tv; his pitch to the forgotten man (please excuse, FDR); and his ability to get himself either on or off and in or out of the news, as was his wont, and you have the engine of his electoral college victory.
Another component of the ascent of free media is the public’s disdain for television advertising if they even watch television anymore. Ads can help, but they are not the sine qua non of political victory as they once were.
Mike Bloomberg. Bloomberg’s commitment to carpeting the Democratic races for President, the House, the Senate and state legislatures with his staff’s expertise and his money will make the difference at each of these levels.
The use of data is key at each level. The result will be that every voter will receive messaging directed to them individually. Television, social media and internet paid ads will certainly play a role, perhaps a more limited role, but in races where small margins can mean victory or defeat Bloomberg’s resources will make the difference there.
That Bloomberg’s resources will go to a candidate Biden and not to a candidate Sanders is clear as Sanders has flatly rejected Bloomberg’s support.
The ticket. There will be a lot of speculation as to who will be selected by either of the two leading Democratic candidates. While the identity of the person seeking that office usually does not make a difference in the outcome, perhaps the age of both Biden and Sanders may affect the significance of that selection in the eyes of the voters.
As always, the selection should be based on the ability of the candidate to serve as president, nothing more and nothing less.
Long waits at the polls. The hours-long waits to vote in at least Texas and California are a blatant form of voter suppression that cannot be allowed to continue and must be corrected before the November election.
There is no excuse for subjecting would-be voters to discouraging delays. We complain about the possibility of Russian interference in the 2020 election. Nothing could be worse than the arrogant stance of state and local election authorities that they are doing their best. Not good enough!
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